Tuesday, 5 February 2013

Projects like HS2 and understanding the case


I am ambivalent towards HS2 (I don't live anywhere near the route), and the recent phase 2 announcements have done nothing to dispel that.  If there was a referendum on it, I would instinctively vote 'no' because it's a huge cost over 20 years (approaching a generation) which delivers only an incremental improvement to travel.

However, there's the problem ... "instinctively". It is very hard, on this and many other issues facing the UK, for even a reasonably well-informed member of the public to get to the bottom of the business case. Quite apart from the technical and financial complexity, there is the political positioning and obfuscation from all interested parties.

I have two radical suggestions:
1.  the government strategy should be more about creating work, communities and culture all over the UK, and less about people constantly travelling between big cities; the technology of the industrial revolution encouraged specialisation and centralisation, whereas the technology of the communications revolution (yes, the one we’re in right now) should encourage de-centralisation and multi-skilled communities.

2.  I should start a 'campaign for clear analysis' (CAMCAN) which will provide a simple business case framework of costs, measurable benefits, quantified risks and alternatives.  This could then be populated for each major UK project for the population at large to understand and meaningfully compare.  (This might just be useful for the upcoming EU Referendum.)

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